Eater - Doomsday Cometh: All the Foods Allegedly on the Brink of Extinctionhttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/52682/favicon-32x32.png2016-09-15T12:02:30-04:00http://www.eater.com/rss/stream/128634772016-09-15T12:02:30-04:002016-09-15T12:02:30-04:00Three Foods That Might Not Survive Modern Diseases
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<p>Are future generations doomed to a life without bananas, honey, and olive oil?</p> <p id="GvrD5J">What do olive oil, bananas, and honey have in common? They’re not ingredients in the latest celebrity-endorsed juice cleanse elixir. More ominously, they’re foods with uncertain fates. Olive groves in Italy are <a href="http://www.oliveoiltimes.com/olive-oil-business/europe/researcher-calls-for-greater-vigilance-to-stop-killer-disease-ravaging-groves-in-puglia/50086">scenes of devastation</a> as a bacterial pathogen spreads, leaving behind withered, brown trees in its wake. A fungus is infiltrating soils in the tropics, and it has the potential to make half the bananas on earth go <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/bananas-extinction-cavendish-panama-disease_us_565eb2d3e4b08e945fed6712">extinct</a>. A trifecta of maladies are bringing down <a href="http://phys.org/news/2016-08-pollinators-faring-anthropogenic.html">honeybees</a>, a plight that threatens not just honey, but a third of the food produced on the planet.</p>
<p><q class="pullquote float-left">It’s that worldwide reach that also hastes the pandemic-like spread of pathogens that infect food.</q></p>
<p id="LSXgBy">In the U.S., the expansive global market often insulates consumers from noticing the effects of these food pandemics: If your favorite Tuscan olive oil disappears from shelves, a fine Andalucian version from Spain is probably the next shelf over. But it’s that worldwide reach that also hastens the pandemic-like spread of these food maladies. If left unchecked, certain aisles might one day be empty. Here, experts weigh in on the <b>prognoses for three different foods</b> that could potentially be doomed by diseases.</p>
<h3><strong>Bacteria in the boot</strong></h3>
<p id="gkGl2o">Johnny Madge clears his throat before describing what it was like to drive into Puglia, the region of Italy that encompasses the heel of the boot-like peninsula. Visitors would normally describe the villas, the thousand-year-old farms, whitewashed houses, and the salty, crystalline waters of the Mediterranean. Madge however, an olive oil expert based in Lazio, Italy, lowers his voice like he’s telling a ghost story. "You got the feeling you were approaching something like Chernobyl," he says.</p>
<p id="iiGxo2">That description refers to the olive groves in Puglia; the withered, barren trees that make it seem like a wildfire has ravaged the once verdant hills. This post-apocalyptic landscape is the result of a plant disease caused by the bacterium <em>Xylella fastidiosa pauca, </em>a deadly pathogen that threatens to usurp the ancient farms.</p>
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<p class="caption">Infected olive tress in Puglia. Photo: Tiziana Fabi/AFP/Getty Images</p>
<p id="ulM95T">Since the outbreak started, the infectious zone has spread north, moving dangerously close to the ankle of the Italian boot. Puglia’s geographical location at the heart of the Mediterranean’s olive growing regions — and the Italian authorities’ inability to enforce containment measures — has the European Union worried about imminent spread. If <em>X. </em><em>fastidiosa</em><em style="line-height: 1.5;"> — </em>which is transmitted from tree to tree by insects — <b>spills out of the boot</b>, the trees that produce 95 percent of the world’s olive oil would likely be in jeopardy.</p>
<p id="rNUwBw">In Italy, the olive trees are more than just a crop. "When you talk to people about olive oil in the Mediterranean, blood is almost the right word," says Madge. "They’ve had these trees in their families for over thousands of years. They think of them almost as grandparents." In Puglia, Madge described farmers crying, mourning the loss of trees they had picnicked under since they were children. These trees had produced oil that preserved food before refrigerators, and fueled lamps before electricity; they yielded harvests that farmers took for granted until <em>X. </em><em>fastidiosa</em><em style="line-height: 1.5;">.</em></p>
<p><q class="pullquote float-right">"In the Mediterranean, they’ve had these trees in their families for thousands of years."</q></p>
<p id="K5EJtL">In the United States, spunky Puglia olive oil varietals like Cellina di Nardò — which is particularly vulnerable to <em>X. </em><em>fastidiosa </em><span>— have a more subtle presence, culturally and on store shelves. They’re chefs' secret weapons, used to add a finishing touch to a dish. The early harvest olives in Puglia produce oils that are "grassy, bitter, peppery, assertive, and robust," says </span><a href="http://www.groveandvine.com/">Nicholas Coleman</a><span>, olive oil expert and co-founder of Grove and Vine, a company that creates proprietary custom blends. "It’s like an invisible ingredient; most people don’t know that it’s been added at the end when they go to a nice restaurant," he says. These oils can retail for upwards of $50 when imported, a far cry from the </span><a style="line-height: 1.5; background-color: #ffffff;" href="http://www.eater.com/2016/6/30/12070668/olive-oil-fraud-italy-fines-bertolli">ambiguously labeled</a><span> "Extra Virgin" oils in the supermarket.</span></p>
<p id="qrSFeh">Good news: <em>X. </em><em>fastidiosa</em><em style="line-height: 1.5;"> </em><span>would have to spread through more than just a handful of Puglia varietals before Americans would notice. "The beauty of being in a generally non-producing country is that we’re not dependent on a local oil source, so we can be open to the world of olive oil," Coleman says.</span></p>
<p id="nUi9Ap">Ironically, that same global network that help insulates American consumers from <em>X. </em><em>fastidiosa </em>is likely <b>behind its spread</b>. According to Madge, <em style="line-height: 1.5;">X. </em><em>fastidiosa </em>is thought to have been transported to Europe as a stowaway in coffee shipped from South America. From there, the insect hitched a ride in trucks that hastened its northward advance.</p>
<p id="weNybc"><span>The rest of the Mediterranean is watching with a wary eye. Scientists are testing different olive cultivars for natural resistance, and the efficacy of grafting resistant trees with those already infected. Recent </span><a style="line-height: 1.5; background-color: #ffffff;" href="http://www.nature.com/news/gridlock-over-italy-s-olive-tree-deaths-starts-to-ease-1.19939">court rulings in Europe</a><span> have mandated containment measures, and Spain, the largest producer of olive oil in the world, is experimenting with resistant cultivars. For now, however, it’s a waiting game to see if measures will slow the spread of the disease.</span></p>
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<h3><strong>A fungus underfoot</strong></h3>
<p id="S3it1O">Every year, the world consumes a staggering number of bananas, and nearly half of those are of the Cavendish cultivar, virtually the only bananas produced for export since they became widespread in the 1950s. And every one of those Cavendish bananas are clones: the banana baby food you ate in your high chair is <b>genetically identical</b> to the one hastily eaten during your morning commute today, each grown from a clipping of a plant cultivated nearly <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-35131751">200 years ago</a>.</p>
<p id="C5vLPy">As far as bananas go, the Cavendish is a workhorse. "It’s very productive," says Dr. Randy Ploetz, a professor of plant pathology at the University of Florida’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences. "Of all the natural bananas out there, it produces the most fruit in the shortest amount of time, with the smallest amount of land."</p>
<p id="iGn8rH">It’s not just these qualities that propelled the Cavendish to number one status, however. In fact, the Cavendish was once considered to be a "<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfX8taUsoEA">junk banana</a>" of inferior taste, according to Dan Koeppel, author of the book <em>Banana: The Fate of the Fruit that Changed the World</em>.</p>
<p>In the 1950s, growers had no choice but to turn to the bland Cavendish when Gros Michel, the once-preferred cultivar, was wiped out across the globe by Panama disease, caused by a particularly nefarious strain of the fungus <em>Fusarium</em> called Tropical Race 1, or TR1<em>. </em>The fungus can lay dormant in the soil for decades, spreading from field to field on the boots of travelers, resistant to most treatments except those that were so environmentally detrimental that they were outlawed. Though less banana-y than their sister strain, the Cavendish’s claim to fame was its resistance to TR1.</p>
<p id="lUV9jr"><q class="pullquote float-left">"The real question is whether we’re going to have something useful by the time this spreads to the Americas." </q></p>
<p><em style="line-height: 1.5;">Fusarium </em>wasn’t to be outsmarted forever. These days there’s a new fungus in town, <b>TR4</b>, and it’s attacking Cavendish. This new strain of Panama disease evaded detection because of its long dormancy period — it slowly spreads from field to field before crops ever show symptoms. "People have underestimated the pernicious nature of this pathogen," Ploetz says, "but the horse is out of the barn now." For years, TR4 was seen only in Southeast Asia, but in 2013 it gained a foothold in <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/panama-banana-disease-detected-on-tully-property/news-story/1cc2ca81ed0e1977f73fb1b38eb7dcbd" style="line-height: 1.5; background-color: #ffffff;">Australia</a>, then spread to the <a href="http://www.promusa.org/Tropical+race+4+-+TR4" style="line-height: 1.5; background-color: #ffffff;">Middle East and Africa</a>, leading to hundreds of millions of dollars in losses.</p>
<p id="DUtjR8">Now, it’s looming ever closer to Central and South America, the world’s largest producers and exporters of bananas. "If it jumps across the Atlantic, production would see the same kinds of impacts [as TR1 on Gros Michel]," Ploetz says. "It’s a scary thought." What the Cavendish have in common with Gros Michel is that they’re all genetically identical clones — if TR4 wipes out Cavendish in the Philippines, it will be equally deadly to every plant around the world.</p>
<p id="WTmumA">It’s no longer a question of <em>if </em>TR4 will come to America, but <em>when. </em>"It’s probably inevitable, given the way people travel internationally," warns Ploetz. "The real question is whether we’re going to have something useful in hand by the time this spreads to the Americas." Until TR4 reaches South America, banana lovers in the US might not notice any effects. After TR4 spreads, however, the only hope is to have a resistant cultivar ready to step in for Cavendish.</p>
<p id="eltKOq">Developing a new cultivar that could live up to the Cavendish standard is a tall order. Wild bananas grow more slowly and have large seeds, which makes them unsuitable for crossing with Cavendish to yield resistant crops. And funding for banana research programs in the US is scarce, as most money supports American staples like corn, wheat, or soybeans.</p>
<p id="RuJU52">Ploetz argues that one viable strategy is to employ genetic modifications that would yield a pathogen-resistant hybrid with the qualities that made the Cavendish a powerhouse banana. Regardless of how it’s done, <b>cultivating crops that can stand up to Panama disease</b> is the only hope for saving this popular fruit. "How soon can we get resistant bananas out there?" Ploetz asks. "There are no other ways to manage this problem."</p>
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<p class="caption">Honeybees on almond flowers. Photo: Radek Mica/AFP/Getty Images</p>
<h3><strong>A sticky situation</strong></h3>
<p id="IbQdfM">The worker bees of the United States go on a cross-country road trip once a year. Every February, commercial beekeepers pack their hives onto trucks and make a pilgrimage to the budding almond orchards in California. For three weeks, the bees fan out over the fields, pollinating the almond flowers. From California, the bees are carted up to Washington where they’ll pollinate apples and cherries, ultimately bumbling their way from crop to crop across the country, rounding out the season buzzing about the blueberry fields in Maine. When all’s said and done, pollinators are a critical step in getting <a href="http://www.greenpeace.org/usa/sustainable-agriculture/save-the-bees/">one in every three</a> bites of food to your fork. The problem? Beekeepers are <b>struggling to keep their hives alive</b>.</p>
<p id="DmVie9">"Every year the annual losses are between 20 and 30 percent [of bees]," says Dr. Steven Cook, an entomologist at the United States Department of Agriculture’s Bee Research Center. "That’s too high for a commercial beekeepers to remain viable."</p>
<p id="tLHtBy">The decline in honey bees is caused by a dizzying <a href="http://www.livescience.com/18139-honeybee-mite-virus.html">ménage à trois of maladies</a>. Pesticides leave bees with weakened immune systems, which make them more susceptible to a bloodsucking mite called, terrifyingly, <em>Varroa destructor. </em>If weakened immune systems and vampyric pests weren’t enough, the mites harbor viruses that cripple pupae, resulting in flightless adults that don’t survive. Though these deadly pesticides have been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/apr/29/bee-harming-pesticides-banned-europe">banned in Europe</a>, US policy has lagged behind, and global travel has enabled the spread of <em>Varroa </em>around the globe. "The only place that doesn’t have <em>Varroa</em> mites?" Cook asks. "I think the Hawaiian island Kauai is still <em>Varroa</em> mite free… but it’s just one little island. Almost everywhere else in the world there are [mites] now."</p>
<p><q class="pullquote float-right">"You might have many fewer options in terms of what fruit you can purchase."</q></p>
<p id="Q0N2Xe">If bee losses continue to go unchecked, consumers may start to feel the effects. And it won’t just be increased honey prices or bear-shaped bottled filled with <a href="http://www.foodsafetynews.com/2011/11/tests-show-most-store-honey-isnt-honey/#.V8c4gZMrIo8">tinted corn syrup</a> in place of the real deal. "You might have many fewer options in terms of what fruit you can purchase," Cook says. <a href="http://bigstory.ap.org/article/b1d7229217ac45b6a1681b8cdcbabe90/un-science-report-warns-fewer-bees-other-pollinators">Some estimates</a> suggest that if current trends continue, there is no way food production will be able to exceed demand by 2050.</p>
<p id="oQ4LXN">Almonds are particularly at risk, as their crops <a href="http://www.abfnet.org/?page=14">depend almost entirely</a> on bees for pollination. By some calculations, commercial bees boost almond yields up to 60 times what they would be without buzzing, striped helpers. More than withering olive trees and threatened bananas, the effects of a dearth of bees can be felt by consumers now. Their decline is to thank for the <a href="http://www.organicauthority.com/26-almond-butter-a-tale-of-american-food-prices/">comically high price</a> of almond butter on supermarket shelves.</p>
<p id="ZwR5up">But researchers like Cook are <b>hopeful</b>. "I feel optimistic," he says. "We’ve come to the conclusion that there’s an interaction among stressors that are affecting colony health." The challenge is to convince the US to enact similar bee-saving policy changes as those in Europe. After all, the collapse of bees would seriously hamper almost a third of food production globally. The exception being plants that don’t rely on pollinators, like bananas. But then again, those might not be around, either.</p>
<p class="credit"><a href="https://twitter.com/kylefrischkorn">Kyle Frischkorn</a> is a freelance writer and graduate student studying oceanography at Columbia University.<br>Editor: <a href="http://eater.com/authors/erin-dejesus">Erin DeJesus</a></p>
https://www.eater.com/2016/9/15/12907918/honey-olive-oil-bananas-extinctKyle Frischkorn2016-08-10T09:30:03-04:002016-08-10T09:30:03-04:00Champagne Makers Warn of a Looming Shortage
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<figcaption>Tim Riediger/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Bubbly had a bad growing season
</p> <p>Is a Champagne shortage on the horizon? Producers of the iconic French sparkling wine just experienced the most challenging growing season in some 60 years thanks to a host of issues, <a target="_blank" href="http://www.decanter.com/wine-news/frost-rot-and-mildew-cause-champagne-shortage-324640/">according to Decanter</a>.</p>
<p>A late spring frost slashed production in a region home to one-quarter of the existing Champagne vineyards, followed by hailstorms and a mildew epidemic; as a result, the season's grape yields will be significantly less than expected.</p>
<p>Thankfully, vintners are prepared for such situations: They have reserves on hand that are used to supplement the harvest after a rough season (and non-vintage Champagnes are made with a blend of several different harvests anyway to ensure a consistent product year to year.) But Charles Philipponnat of Champagne Philipponnat tells Decanter that in order to produce enough wine for the 2016 season, "growers and houses will have to dig heavily in their reserves."</p>
<p>In the meantime, it wouldn't be unwise to choose your celebratory drinking occasions carefully: The world is also facing a <a target="_blank" href="http://www.eater.com/2016/3/7/11172452/scotch-single-malt-shortage-price-surge">global scotch shortage</a> due to increased demand. Meanwhile, the coffee industry is <a target="_blank" href="http://www.eater.com/2016/5/10/11642246/coffee-bean-global-warming-starbucks-latte">bracing for a major dropoff in supply</a> due to climate change, and cocoa is also<a target="_blank" href="http://www.eater.com/2016/1/14/10769396/chocolate-shortage-cocoa-industry"> facing worldwide supply issues</a>. Champagne, scotch, coffee, chocolate — are these the four horsemen of the culinary apocalypse?</p>
<p>• <a target="_blank" href="http://www.decanter.com/wine-news/frost-rot-and-mildew-cause-champagne-shortage-324640/" style="line-height: 1.24;">Champagne Shortage Looms After Frost, Rot, and Mildew</a> [Decanter]</p>
<p>• <a target="_blank" href="http://www.eater.com/2016/3/7/11172452/scotch-single-malt-shortage-price-surge" style="line-height: 1.24;">Everybody Panic, There's a Global Scotch Shortage</a> [E]</p>
https://www.eater.com/2016/8/10/12421696/champagne-shortage-wineWhitney Filloon2016-08-08T19:20:02-04:002016-08-08T19:20:02-04:00Brewers Are Running out of Pumpkin for Their Autumn Beers
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<p>Say it ain't so</p> <p>What's the best signal that fall is arriving? A cooling of temperatures and changing of the leaves? Football on Saturdays and Sundays? Or is it the grocery store beer cases being stocked with pumpkin-flavored brews? The latter autumn tradition may be in danger due to a shortage of the gourds, <a target="_blank" href="http://draftmag.com/brewers-struggle-to-find-pumpkin-for-this-years-fall-brews/">reports Draft</a>.</p>
<p>Fortunately for those who love the sweet and spicy flavors of fall seasonals, it looks like the shortage hasn't reached critical levels — at least not this year. But, it is making life tougher for brewers who produce variations of the style. Paul Kavulak, co-founder of Nebraska Brewing Co., told Draft "a few years were dropped from my lifespan" in the process of finding enough pumpkin puree for Wick For Brains, the brewery's annual fall release.</p>
<p>"We bought enough for maybe the first two batches and then went back to buy more — being good disciples of Just in Time Inventory — and were told they were out," Kavulak said. "We had to brew [Wick For Brains] five times this year, so you can see the panic that set in. My guess is that this is going to be an issue across the board."</p>
<p>The lack of pumpkin available for beer in 2016 stems from a significant crop shortage in 2015. Last year's harvest was down about 50 percent from normal levels, <a target="_blank" href="http://money.cnn.com/2015/10/09/news/companies/pumpkin-shortage/">according to CNN</a>. Market experts were expecting a shortfall of canned pumpkin puree to hit around the time Americans were planning to make their Thanksgiving pies, but that didn't happen. <a target="_blank" href="http://fortune.com/2015/11/26/thanksgiving-pumpkin-shortage/">Fortune reports</a> the 2015 holiday was saved by producers burning through their reserve stock, thus kicking the can down the road. Now, it appears the cupboard is pretty bare. Brian Nelson, head brewer at Hardywood Park in Virginia, told Draft supply may be tight for brewers and bakers alike.</p>
<p>"I was able to patch it together this year and I referred this supplier to a couple other Virginia breweries that I'm friends with," Nelson said. "We'll be fine this year, but I know there are other small breweries scrambling. And I hear it's not only in the brewing industry but in the culinary industry as well."</p>
<p>However, consumers who crave Starbucks's Pumpkin Spice Latte and <a target="_blank" href="http://www.eater.com/2015/9/9/9286337/pumpkin-spice-food-flavor">the many other "pumpkin spice" flavored comestibles</a> needn't worry. Most of those products contain no pumpkin at all.</p>
<p>• <a target="_blank" href="http://draftmag.com/brewers-struggle-to-find-pumpkin-for-this-years-fall-brews/">Brewers struggle to find pumpkin for this year's fall brews</a> [Draft]</p>
<p>• <a target="_blank" href="http://money.cnn.com/2015/10/09/news/companies/pumpkin-shortage/">The great pumpkin shortage of 2015</a> [CNN]</p>
<p>• <a target="_blank" href="http://fortune.com/2015/11/26/thanksgiving-pumpkin-shortage/">Here's What Happened to the Great Thanksgiving Pumpkin Shortage of 2015</a> [Fortune]</p>
<p>• <a target="_blank" href="http://www.eater.com/2015/9/9/9286337/pumpkin-spice-food-flavor">49 Pumpkin Spice Foods That Have No Business Being Pumpkin Spiced</a> [E]</p>
https://www.eater.com/2016/8/8/12406474/pumpkin-shortage-2016-fall-beersChris Fuhrmeister2016-06-12T15:20:06-04:002016-06-12T15:20:06-04:00In-N-Out Is Facing a Yellow Pepper Shortage
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<p>Everybody panic</p> <p>In-N-Out fans who enjoy a little heat with their Double Double burgers by way of bright-yellow, pickled peppers are experiencing withdrawals. <a target="_blank" href="http://www.foodbeast.com/news/innout-pepper-shortage/">Foodbeast reports</a> that the beloved California-based burger chain’s pepper supplier is facing a major shortage this spring. <span>A memo reportedly issued in mid-May directed that employees should ration chilies and only provide customers "with one souffle cup (2 whole chilies) per request." The letter notes that sliced chilies are reserved for "burgers only."</span></p>
<p id="a9kway">The shortage appears to be widespread, affecting not only In-N-Out restaurants but also Carl’s Jr., Zankou Chicken, and Subway, which includes sliced peppers among its sandwich toppings. A customer inquired about the shortage to Subway’s corporate Facebook page in April, and the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/subway/posts/10154097935614974?comment_id=10154175165874974&reply_comment_id=10154175371209974&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D">company responded</a> that "the weather has affected the growers’ supply of banana peppers." A Reddit thread also<a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/subway/comments/4d7jnu/out_of_banana_peppers/"> notes the widespread shortage.</a></p>
<p id="ULQI77"><a href="https://munchies.vice.com/en/articles/why-in-n-out-is-running-out-of-those-little-yellow-peppers-you-love">According to Munchies</a>, "bad weather, disease, and poor soil conditions" have reduced supplies of the yellow chilies, known as cascabella peppers, by 60 percent this year — an industry record. Robert Walker of El Pato, a chili supplier for Carl’s Jr. says his company is fielding calls from desperate restaurants. <span>"We get a call from somebody who said, ‘We know you have chile,’ and the answer is, ‘Get in line,'" he says. </span></p>
<p id="PC9z3z">Meanwhile customers are pining for their once abundant chili peppers.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Soooo mad about the chili pepper shortage at in-n-out. It's just not the same</p>
— Nayeli Soto (@_MamaNayyy) <a href="https://twitter.com/_MamaNayyy/status/739972285990199297">June 7, 2016</a>
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<p id="WjK5pq">The good news is that a fresh batch of chilies will hopefully be harvested and pickled within the next few weeks, meaning supplies could be back to normal in July.</p>
<p id="j6WrlK">Abrupt changes in weather and climate, as well as fluctuations in demand can have a devastating impact on food supplies. Some might recall the <a href="http://www.eater.com/2015/9/28/9408775/chipotle-carnitas-crisis-over-returns-november-all-locations">great Chipotle carnitas crisis of 2015</a>. This year, the world is facing<a href="http://www.eater.com/2016/3/7/11172452/scotch-single-malt-shortage-price-surge"> a Scotch shortage </a>resulting from the rapid increase in popularity of the beverage over the last decade. Major chocolate makers are <a href="http://www.eater.com/2016/1/14/10769396/chocolate-shortage-cocoa-industry">investing in sustainability programs</a> to help head off a worldwide cocoa shortage. The best alternative to chocolate — <a href="http://www.eater.com/2016/3/25/11305800/vanilla-bean-shortage-madagascar">Madagascar vanilla</a> — is also facing a price surge due to last year’s poor harvest.</p>
<p><b>Watch:</b><i> Anthony Bourdain Loves In-N-Out Burger</i></p>
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https://www.eater.com/2016/6/12/11914012/in-n-out-yellow-chili-pepper-shortageBrenna Houck2016-05-10T09:30:46-04:002016-05-10T09:30:46-04:00Coffee Market Braces for Global Warming's Effects
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<p>Even Starbucks isn't immune to rising temps</p> <p>Gird your beans — according to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.technologyreview.com/s/601404/coffee-under-threat/">MIT's Technology Review</a>, coffee is under threat. That's largely due to warming temperatures which, if they continue at their current rate, could lead to 80 percent of Arabica-growing land in Brazil and Central America becoming "unsuitable to the crop by 2050, according to research by the International Center for Tropical Agriculture." According to the research, a 50 percent decline is predicted over the same period, which will likely lead to a drop in quantity and a rise in bean prices.</p>
<p>As the MIT report suggests, one of the companies most concerned about climate change is Starbucks, which has heavily invested in studying beans that can thrive in hotter climates. If temperatures continue to warm at their current pace, new supply routes and new bean suppliers for a number of companies would need to be established.</p>
<p>The market has been <a target="_blank" href="http://www.eater.com/2015/10/1/9437041/coffee-shortage-worldwide">bracing for a global coffee shortage</a> for some time now, with some studies finding that coffee production may eventually need to move to parts of Asia and eastern Africa. Rising temps in many coffee-producing countries have already begun to affect production. In Chiapas, Mexico, coffee farmers lost 60 percent of their production to leaf rust brought on by increasing temperature and rain. Starbucks Mexico has since distributed rust-resistant coffee plants in the area.</p>
<p>Starbucks has been actively working to <a target="_blank" href="http://www.eater.com/drinks/2015/3/24/8280405/will-the-world-run-out-of-coffee-by-2080">decrease its carbon footprint</a> at its many stores, but adding hot food to the menu (like breakfast sandwiches) seems to have impeded that. According to MIT, emissions have increased in recent years, "rising from just over one million metric tons in 2012 to 1,258,092 metric tons in 2014, mainly from energy used in its stores, offices, and roasting plants."</p>
https://www.eater.com/2016/5/10/11642246/coffee-bean-global-warming-starbucks-latteVirginia Chamlee2016-03-25T14:34:06-04:002016-03-25T14:34:06-04:00Madagascar Vanilla Shortage Could Raise Ice Cream Prices
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<p>Blame it on a bad harvest</p> <p>If your favorite ice cream flavor is still vanilla, perhaps it's time to broaden those horizons a bit: A bad harvest in Madagascar has led to a price surge for its most prized crop, vanilla beans, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/mar/25/vanilla-shortage-ice-cream-price-rise-uk-madagascar" target="_blank">reports <i>The Guardian</i></a>. This could lead to a rising tide of ice cream prices around the world.</p>
<p><span>Vanilla prices have been steadily rising since last year's poor Madagascan harvest, but the price has especially spiked over the past few months as supplies are dwindling. </span><a style="line-height: 1.5; background-color: #ffffff;" href="http://www.foodbusinessnews.net/articles/news_home/Supplier-Innovations/2016/01/Madagascar_2_Vanilla_prices_so.aspx?ID=%7B1564002E-4183-4182-BE0D-54EC81DE37E8%7D&cck=1" target="_blank"><i>Food Business News </i>says</a><span> in 2011 the price of vanilla beans hovered around $20 a kilogram, and by this January they'd risen above $200 a kilogram.</span></p>
<p>In the spice world vanilla is second only in price to <a href="http://www.eater.com/2015/7/29/9067913/food-crimes-saffon-trade-episode-2" target="_blank">saffron</a>, largely because of the difficult cultivation process: Each flower has to be pollinated by hand — something that's possible only on one particular day during the growing season — and once the pods are ready to be picked they must then be cured for as long as six months. Madagascar vanilla is famed for its creamy, sweet flavor that makes it especially popular with ice cream makers such as Haagen Dazs.</p>
<p><span>While in the past some companies would switch to artificial vanilla flavoring substitutes when the price of vanilla got too high, that's no longer an option for many such as Nestle and General Mills that are now </span><a style="line-height: 1.5; background-color: #ffffff;" href="http://www.eater.com/2015/6/22/8825513/general-mills-is-ditching-artificial-colors-flavors-2017-cereal" target="_blank">going the "all-natural" route</a> — meaning demand is now even higher.</p>
<p>Thankfully, industry experts are predicting that this year's harvest, which will begin shipping in November, should be more plentiful. In the meantime, perhaps a switch to chocolate — or literally any other flavor — ice cream is in order this summer.</p>
https://www.eater.com/2016/3/25/11305800/vanilla-bean-shortage-madagascarWhitney Filloon2016-03-07T11:00:07-05:002016-03-07T11:00:07-05:00Everybody Panic, There's a Global Scotch Shortage
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<figcaption><a href='https://www.flickr.com/photos/reuvenim/13660858753/'>Moshe Reuveni/Flickr</a></figcaption>
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<p>Demand for single-malt is outpacing supply</p> <p>Single-malt Scotch drinkers, beware: Your precious beverage of choice is currently facing a global shortage. The demand for fine Scotch is now outpacing the available supply, resulting in surging prices — and it seems things will only get worse before they get better.</p>
<p><a target="_blank" href="http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/04/luxury/global-single-malt-scotch-whisky-drought/index.html?sr=fbmoney030416global-single-malt-scotch-whisky-drought1015AMStoryLink&linkId=21914890">According to CNN Money</a>, the current shortage could last another 10 to 15 years. Because Scotch takes several years to produce, distillers have to decide how much to make based on how much they predict they'll sell in the future.</p>
<p><span>No one was able to predict the current surge in Scotch popularity; i</span><span>n fact,</span><span> "In the late 1980s, many distilleries were going out of business, and just a decade ago, Scotch exports were stagnating." But now,</span><span> </span><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eater.com/2015/8/24/9200581/fireball-favorite-liquor-america-millennials-prefer-bourbon-vodka">millennials are eschewing vodka in favor of whiskey </a><span>and China's booming economy is developing a taste for pricey Scotch; </span><span>a</span><span>ccording to the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States, </span><span>sales of single-malts have risen nearly 300 percent between 2002 and 2015.</span><span> </span></p>
<p>Many distilleries are doing their best to ramp up production so they can cash in on the Scotch boom; CNN notes that "In recent years, brands including Macallan, Highland Park and Oban have started rushing out bottles whose labels don't mention the whisky's age." In the meantime, expect to pay a pretty penny for properly old single-malts: <a target="_blank" href="http://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/worldwide-scotch-shortage-compounds-existing-bourbon-scarcity">Atlas Obscura notes</a> that "a bottle of Pappy Van Winkle 15 that went for $47 in 2007 cost a whopping $982 in 2014," and analysts say prices will only continue to rise.</p>
https://www.eater.com/2016/3/7/11172452/scotch-single-malt-shortage-price-surgeWhitney Filloon2016-01-14T14:02:12-05:002016-01-14T14:02:12-05:00Big Chocolate Makers Drop $1 Billion to Head Off Worldwide Cocoa Shortage
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<p>Demand is up and production is down.</p> <p>The world is hungry for chocolate — and cocoa growers are having a tough time keeping up with demand. As an increase in global demand and a recent slump in production produces headlines aplenty warning that the world could run out of chocolate, <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/chocolate-makers-fight-a-melting-supply-of-cocoa-1452738616?mod=e2tw" target="_blank">the <i>Wall Street Journal</i> reports</a> industry giants are shelling out big bucks in an attempt to reverse those trends.</p>
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<p><span>The <i>WSJ</i> cites figures from research firm Euromonitor International saying "global demand for chocolate rose 0.6% to a record 7.1 million tons in 2015, led by a 5.9% jump in Asia." Meanwhile, cocoa production is down: Ghana, the world's number-two grower of cocoa beans, </span><a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/ghanas-cocoa-board-seeks-to-reassure-traders-investors-1446030476" target="_blank">saw a huge drop in crop yields last season</a><span> thanks to numerous factors including rough weather and old, diseased cacao trees.</span></p>
<p><span></span><span>As a result, "cocoa prices have jumped nearly 40% since the start of 2012," and Lindt, Nestle, and Hershey's have all increased prices as a result of the surge. (In October, the biggest month for candy sales thanks to Halloween, </span><a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/10/29/more-trick-than-treat-candy-prices-expected-to-jump-this-halloween/" target="_blank">prices were up 4.2 percent year-over-year</a><span> thanks to increased prices for cocoa as well as sugar.)</span></p>
<p>Mondelez, which makes Oreo and Cadbury, has committed $400 million to fueling a cocoa sustainability program through 2022, with employees on the ground in Ghana "[giving] cocoa farmers advice on better ways to space seedlings, apply fertilizer and prune trees." Other producers like Hershey and Mars Inc. are leading their own sustainability efforts, and in an unprecedented move, the top-ten chocolate producing companies have pledged to share "a wide swath of private data on farming practices and crop yields."</p>
<p>Cocoa isn't the only precious bean facing a shortage: Industry experts have warned that <a target="_blank" href="http://www.eater.com/2015/10/1/9437041/coffee-shortage-worldwide">coffee production needs to be dramatically ramped up</a> over the next decade in order to fuel an increasing global demand. Much like chocolate, demand for coffee is surging in Asia — particularly China, where Starbucks just announced intentions to <a href="http://www.eater.com/2016/1/12/10754112/starbucks-china-expansion-2500-stores" target="_blank">open 2,500 more stores</a> over the next five years.</p>
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<p><b>Eater Video:</b> <i>How your favorite holiday chocolate is made</i></p>
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https://www.eater.com/2016/1/14/10769396/chocolate-shortage-cocoa-industryWhitney Filloon